The Hamas Offensive

Ethan Bronner of the New York Times has an excellent piece today on Hamas’s arms buildup in Gaza, based on a report by the Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center.

AJC’s Terrorism Expert Yehudit Barsky examines Hamas’s quest for legitimacy, and its quest for arms, in this AJC briefing:

The repercussions of Hamas’s border breach into Egypt in January have yet to be fully appreciated. The long-term impact on the security of both Israel and Egypt, as well as on the wider region, deserves international scrutiny so the threat of Hamas can be contained and defeated.

From Hamas’ perspective, destruction of the border wall broke the sanctions imposed by Israel and the international community on the Hamas government and brought Gaza back into the fold of the Arab and Muslim worlds. Hamas saw the action as another victory not just for itself, but for Islamist movements worldwide. Its first triumph was the July 2007 coup against the Palestinian Authority that resulted in its takeover of Gaza.

Now, Hamas is challenging the Muslim world to recognize it as the legitimate ruler of Gaza. Hamas demands that it should exercise control over the Gaza-Egypt border, a move that would abrogate an international agreement governing a security sharing arrangement between Israel, Egypt and the Palestinian Authority led by Mahmud Abbas, and monitored by the European Union.

Since the early 1990s, Hamas has enjoyed substantial Iranian financial support. More recently, it has been receiving increased logistical support, including heavy weapons and extensive training, for its operatives. Hamas is eager to become a terror organization with military capabilities on par with Hezbollah, Iran’s proxy in Lebanon. As Hamas continues to solidify itself as Iran’s base on Israel’s southern border, it has shown with its recent activities that it intends to use its enhanced capabilities to threaten not only Israel but Egypt as well.

The January border breach gave Hamas an unprecedented opportunity to enhance its arsenal. As 750,000 Gazans crossed into Egypt to gather supplies, Hamas and its allies smuggled into Gaza military-grade heavy weapons, including long-range rockets, and anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles, which are most likely to be the next weapons aimed at Israeli cities. The same terror groups took advantage of traffic leaving Gaza to send their operatives into Egypt, with the goal of infiltrating the Israeli border from Sinai. In response, Israel tightened security measures around its air force bases in the southern part of the country.

Egypt views Hamas with apprehension. Initially, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak declared that the ruptured border would remain open. But, after a few days, the Egyptian government abruptly reversed its policy. Foreign Minister Ahmad Aboul Gheit declared that Egyptian forces would “break the legs” of anyone crossing the border. Egypt deployed a security force of 20,000 in the northern Sinai Peninsula to pick up Gazans and return them, and set a deadline for any Gazans still in Egypt to go back to Gaza. A total of 800 Palestinians were reportedly detained by Egyptian security forces, questioned and then sent back to Gaza. Meanwhile, Hamas accused the Egyptians of torturing 100 Hamas members, who had been detained after entering Egypt with explosives.

Egypt remains uneasy about the ties and influence of Hamas on Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood, the parent organization of Hamas. Following the border breach, the Brotherhood organized 80 demonstrations in support of Hamas and in opposition to the Mubarak government. In turn, Egyptian police cracked down, breaking up protests and arresting Muslim Brotherhood activists. Egypt is also wary of its own citizens and foreign Arabs who went to Gaza and then returned to Egypt through Sinai. Egyptian security forces questioned some 2000 non-Gazans, the majority of whom were Egyptians who reportedly went to Gaza and volunteered to fight together with Hamas and other terrorist groups against Israel.

Hamas has stepped up the volume of rocket attacks on Israel, and, with Iran’s aid, has upgraded its weaponry. In the first two months of 2008, Hamas fired at Sderot more than 50 percent of the total number of rockets launched throughout 2007. For seven years Sderot and its surrounding communities have been under almost daily barrages of Qassam rockets from Gaza.

In recent weeks Hamas also has launched Iranian-manufactured Grad rockets that struck Ashkelon, 11 miles north of Gaza. There is concern that Hamas has already acquired longer-range artillery that could strike Israel’s main civilian population centers farther north.

In addition to the rockets and missiles, Hamas has never ceased its traditional methods of terrorism. Its March 6 murderous shooting attack on seminary students in Jerusalem is only part of what has become a multifaceted offensive.

Hamas’ continued acquisition of long range weapons and its intensifying attacks against Israeli civilians has left Israel with few options. As a result of these developments ground operations similar to the recent one carried out by Israel against Hamas may be Israeli’s only viable alternative to prevent its citizens from being targeted with even higher caliber weapons.