Concern regarding Jewish fertility is not a new phenomenon. It is much older than the Rosenthal research of the 1960’s or the National Jewish Population Survey 2000-2001, which found a 1.86 American Jewish fertility rate. (Replacement-level is 2.1 children for every woman). The concern is as old as the Bible itself. “Be fruitful and multiply” is God’s first commandment and the patriarchal narratives focus on the challenge of infertility and its connection to continuity. Alas, we have not yet fulfilled the promise to Abraham that his descendants would be too numerous to count (Genesis 15:5).
In our day, Jewish fertility is under-discussed and under-researched. And yet, it is arguably the most important issue facing the Jewish people. Today Jews are barely 2% of the population. Jewish interests are not dependent solely upon numbers, but a critical mass is essential to the political positioning of American Jewry.
So why is Jewish fertility not on the front burner of American Jewish life? First, it is a very sensitive and personal topic. And any successful discussion of the Jewish birthrate must be presented sensitively. With the exception of a small number of ZPG (zero population growth) holdouts, Jews are naturally inclined to support the creation of more Jews. But not everyone is able, even if they are willing. Some are marrying later or not at all, as a matter of choice. More than half of all Jews ages 18-39 are single and most would like to be married, but haven’t yet connected. With later marriage comes a higher incidence of reproductive challenges and lower fertility. We all know people who have difficulty conceiving and undergo the expensive and emotionally draining reproductive technology process.
Second, in an age of political correctness, a pro-natalism agenda is sometimes interpreted as anti-feminist. This is most unfortunate because an alliance between feminists and natalists is essential to a productive Jewish communal response to the challenge of a weak Jewish birthrate. The seeming conflict is due to the inverse correlation between female level of education and fertility – that is, the higher the level of a woman’s education, the lower the fertility. During a discussion of this topic a few years back, one of American Jewry’s most respected leaders said that, despite his desire to have more grandchildren, he was very proud of his own daughters’ professional achievements and unwilling to turn the clock back on the career advancement of women. But must the American Jewish community choose between these two poles? Isn’t the issue more complex? After all, this challenge is also about men. Jewish men are less likely than Jewish women to marry at all. Jewish men who do marry, marry significantly later than the already late-marrying Jewish women. How much of this issue is about women’s educational attainments and professional success (positive developments) and how much is about Jewish men?
Third, why take on a challenge that is so formidable? Can anything really be done about the low Jewish birthrate? The truth is we do not know. Governments have tried to increase their country’s birthrate with little success. In this regard, Israel is a Western anomaly that beckons closer evaluation by the Jewish community in the U.S. The fertility rate in Israel is 2.7, by far the highest of any democracy in the world. And in Israel there is a divergence from the Western inverse relationship between wealth/education and birthrate. The average size of Israeli families with a high monthly income – above 50,000 shekel – is 4.3 people, compared to 3.7 for families with more modest salaries. Can we learn something from the Israeli example? Is it possible to recreate in the U.S. Jewish community the family friendliness that is part of Israeli society?
Finally, Jewish fertility is inseparable from the core issue behind it – Jewish identity. Building a Jewish family is about commitment to Jewish life and we cannot win the battle for more Jewish children in a vacuum. It is part and parcel of the battle for sustained Jewish identity among the Jewish young of America. The connection between Jewish birthrate and Jewish identity explains the significantly higher levels of fertility among Orthodox Jews. But there is hope that the conversation is expanding to pleasantly surprising venues. PresenTense, an online and print magazine that is part of the young American Jewish creative resurgence, recently co-sponsored a salon for a group of Jewish twenty-somethings. The discussion topic was “Baby Makers R Us: Are We Responsible for Upping the Numbers?” Perhaps the conversation is just beginning.
Noam Marans is AJC’s associate director of Contemporary Jewish Life.
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14 users responded in this post
As the first lay chair of AJC task force on the family and one who has written extensively on the Jewish family I hasten to respond. The issue is grave but i’m afraid the odds of dealing with the subject are almost nil. The history of family allowances, the rightful concern of women thsat they not be boxed into beconing baby-making machine, the individualistis nature of our society, the high cost of raising children, make any direct approach to the subject difficult. I’d urge AJC to get women to write on this subject who are unaffiliated, secular, and/or conservative or Reform Jews. Any serious discussion of the subject without leading aricles and discussions without women is folly and futile.
Gerald Bubis
All educated groups are reducing reproduction. As groups got electricity, TV, and more sophisticated involvement in their societies, they spend less time in sex and more in career and social life. This is not a Jewish problem.
The notion of the Jewish Community is not such a useful abstraction when it comes to demographics and fertility analysis. In the quilt of Jewish life in America there are large pockets of zero replenishment such as MNC (married no children) couples and other urban social groups, gays and lesbians, single professionals and young workers who push child bearing plank higher and higher often substitutng pet ownership for child rearing. These and other life paths converge with the life chocices of non-Jewish population in general. It seems as if the reduced fertility rate (deplosion) is intimately connected with the dominant urban culture and strategies.
On the other end of the spectrum are the orthodox Jewish groups ranging from Chabad to modern Orthodox Jewry whose birth rate is significantly higher (I believe the figure is 4.1 for Chabad memebrs) The fertility rate for the orthodx is well known if not specifically, then at least anecdotally. What is relatively unknown is the fact that a large segment of the non-orthodox Jews in America deliveres a much higher fertility rate then their American-born cohorts. I speak mainly of immigatnt groups - Jews from the former USSR, Persian Jews, and Israelis who immigrated to the United States since the early 70’s.
These groups are unstudued, and their effective reproductive suvccesses are not visible. Yet, their ability to produce and raise children in numbers exceeding that of the host population is a promising source of insights of how values and Jewish identity (different from the host community) help to maintain and increase (in the case of Russian Jews)their traditional family size while at the same time managing to survive and prosper in the new land.
A Study by RINA (Research Institute for New Americans) of Rusdsian Jews in New York suggests that the trend of having more than two children continues regardless of income leveles or even length of stay in the US.
If I may venture a hypothesis from the inside of that group of (old) newcomers that Jerry Bubis knows so well - the decision of how many chiildren to have has something to do with such elusive notions as “optimism” and “hope”. shaped in turn by the attitudes towards the land we inhabit. If the habitat is seen as receptive, encouraging for survival and promisisng prosperrity, the rate of child birth is increased. If the land is seen as hostile, unsatisfying, barren of the deep attachment, the birth rate would decrease.
You may wish to draw your own conclusions but I sense that the decreased birth rate amoing ‘mainstream’American Jews (and non-Jews) is as much a reflection of how they see America as it is a reflection on how they see themselves in it. This combination of self-interest and social rejectiionism is what drives the birth rate down. By the same token, the spirit of acceptance and identification with the nation at large (so characteristic of the immigant cohorts) is the reason behind higher birth rate even among two income professional families of immigrant Jews in America. It may well be that the Israeli phenomenon described above is fed from the same source of patriotic engagement.
This is not a problem among the various orthodox communities, where the birth rate is perhaps greater than what many of us would consider reasonable.
I disagree with Boris that Jews are merely reflecting American trends. Each of these phenomenon are amplified among (non-Orthodox) Jews. Statistics show among Jews greater proportions of homosexuals, unmarried adults, later marriages, and low birthrate versus the American population.
It is worth researching why Jews exhibit these characteristics in greater magnitude. I predict that research will find at the root of the problem is an endemic selfish indulgence, where one’s goals in life are dominated by materialism and sexual freedoms. We have been raising spoiled, affluent children who feel its their right to “have it all” without regards to their religious and communal obligations. That is why no one wants to talk about it. The truth will be very ugly indeed.
Perhaps one solution is to link birthrate with birthright.
The birhtright israel initiative is bringing tens of thousands of young Jews to Israel. If birthright can be used a teaching tool to encourage these young Jews to have Jewish families (and sooner than later), we may have some leverage in changing the status quo.
Professor Bernard Wasserstein writes, “The demographic outlook for Jews in all the major Diaspora centres is bleak. The Jewish family, that pillar of Jewish community, is disappearing” (p282}. In his book, “Vanishing Diapora” (1996) in which he is focusing on European Jewry, he says that “the number of Jews in Europe by the year 2000 would then be not much more than 1 million” (p284). His final paragraph (p290) reads, “The Jews of Europe are, slowly but surely, fading away. Soon nothing will be left save a disembodied memory.” A memory of Judaism without bodies!
The Preface to his book begins, “The Jews are vanishing from Europe - and not only because of Hitler.” He details population figures such as the fall from 9.6 million in 1939 to 1.8 million in 1994 so that his projection of 1 million in 2000 might have been optimistic.
“Since Hitler”, he says,”the story of Jews is not as victims of the hatred of their neighbours but, rather, as victims of their kindness. It is a story of the processes of integration and assimilation that have succeeded to such a degree as to threaten the collective survival of Jews, at least in Western Europe” (pxiii).
My view is that, since Judaism looks back to about the 10th century BCE, and depends on prophecies from that time onwards, it is too anachronistic to survive in a modern and secularised society.
Let me add another dimension to this major problem that seems to be “swept under the carpet” by everyone I meet: the high cost of synagogue membership.
For years, I have implored whoever holds the office of president of our reform synagogue to make membership more affordable to those in a lower income category. However, all I hear in response is, “it’s as low as we can make it, based upon our expenses”, but the rates increase yearly. Or, “they can contact us for an exception”. When I was in a low income category (divorced, single mother with major child-related expenses), I did that, only to have to submit a recently-filed tax return, and then to be phoned and pressured, in the most aggressive manner, to give more. I decided I would not be shamed in such a manner and, instead, raised my children as Unitarians. (Today, one child is raising Jewish but secular children, the other, as Unitarians.)
Later, after my children were in college, I decided to try again, still very much needing financial assistance. Only when I told the responsible individual to forget the whole thing and cancel my membership application, did he relent and abide by my original assessment of my ability to pay. This scenario was repeated for several years!
The churches seek funds, too, but not nearly in as demanding a manner as we Jews. How can we expect our people to “live Jewishly” and reproduce committed Jewish children, if they don’t affiliate with a place of Jewish prayer and learning, so that our traditions can be continued?
“It is worth researching why Jews exhibit these characteristics in greater magnitude. I predict that research will find at the root of the problem is an endemic selfish indulgence, where one’s goals in life are dominated by materialism and sexual freedoms. We have been raising spoiled, affluent children who feel its their right to “have it all” without regards to their religious and communal obligations. That is why no one wants to talk about it. The truth will be very ugly indeed.”
You are 100% wrong. Parents are the problem, parents who encourage their children to treat Judaism as a subculture in which to dabble, to date non-Jews, to avoid major life commitments such as marriage until receiving their Ph.D, and to remain at the “set table” of prosperous and educated Diaspora life instead of moving into a Jewish community or to Israel. In essence, parents who tell their children to pursue all their dreams besides the Jewish ones.
I tell you these things as an 18-year-old Jewish male. I hope to make aliyah after college, and plan to spend much of my remaining time before that in Israel.
Not having to wear the “Assimilated Minority” mask for once would be nice. But I suppose olim constitute their own minority…
This is a fascinating and important subject.
Seems to me that each of the above have touched on important aspects.
What I have seen is that
1) the role of women– careers, later marriages is crucial
2) affluence and the limiting of children due to cost of raising them “properly” and educating them
3) less focus on family, home and more on travel, mobility, eating out, etc.
4) fewer positive role models showing how one can manage 3-5 children and still live a meaningful life
5) influence of liberal politics– Zero population growth, not understanding demographics as a key aspect of future world politics (e.g. Muslim population in Europe) in a sensible manner
JD
I found an old article from the UK’s Independant newspaper dated 20 May 1996, and I thought I would share some of the comments and statistics. The article was written by Eric Silver and contains quotes from many Jewish authorities. For him,”the demographic debate is no longer between optimists and pessimists, but between those who are less pessimistic and those who are more pessimistic.”
The director of Jewish education in the Jewish Agency, David Harman, said, “We are fighting a losing battle. There will not be significant Jewish communities in Europe in the early part of the 21st century. In the US, they will meander a little longer because of the sheer bulk involved.”
In regard to the former Soviet Union, Harman stated that “there are eleven Jewish deaths for every one Jewish birth.”
Figures given to Silver in 1996 from the Jewish Agency included the statistic that “there are only 1,550,000 children of school age in all the countries of the Diaspora. The total Diapora population is about 10 million.” Harman commented that “this is a population that is not being replenished.”
Some US studies indicate that about half of marriages involving Jews are mixed, and Jonathan Sacks, UK Chief Rabbi, has asked, “Will we have Jewish grandchildren?”
In the whole Diaspora, only about half of the Jewish children receive any kind of Jewish education. Educational tours to Israel for teenagers fell from a peak of 12,000 in 1987 to 5,000 in 1996.
Silver surmises that the only viable Jewish communities will soon be found in Israel and pockets of extreme orthodoxy.
This leaves the current (2007) population of Jews in Israel which is 5,750,000. Israel was not nearly so surrounded by armed camps in 1996 when Silver wrote his article as it is now. Dr Dan Ben David of Tel Aviv University writes in Haaretz (19.6.07) that decisions in Israel and/or the US will need to be made in the next twelve months in regard to Iran, because that country will have attained nuclear weapons over the next thirty months.
So, whilst the Disapora is fading away, the Jewish population of about 6 million is facing an existential threat, one nuclear-generated possibility of which is the end of the state itself.
Perhaps it’s no wonder that Jewish-born teenagers don’t want to hitch the flag of their young lives to what appears to be a sinking ship. And perhaps, loving parents don’t want to coerce their teenagers to get on board a ship of titanic proportions!
Patrick, the study you quote is old, and baruch Hashem a lot of things have turned around in the past decade. Russian Jewish birthrate is up to more than replacement levels (a big deal, considering) in Israel and I believe also in America (it remains low in Russia). While the population of American Jews is still declining, the Orthodox have a high birthrate. The population will shrink, but not disappear. It might even go up again–the assimilated will fall behind, but as the religious population gains momentum the overall population will begin to grow again.
The main point, though, is that you’re simply too negative. The doomsday tone you have is one that some might consider justified, but then again it’s been justified throughout Jewish history and we’re still here.
Still, I think your post is very important. If young Jews look at Jewishness as a historical burden or an ethnicity, as you seem to, then you’re right, it’s not worth the risk. The main thing is to instill a sense of Jewish responsibility and Jewish pride in our children, and to teach them the joy of Jewish life. Kathy is so right, a huge obstacle in this is mundane financial reality. Tuition is expensive, synagogues are expensive, etc. Hopefully outreach groups like Chabad and Aish will be able to help. Also, parents need to take individual responsibility to pass Jewishness on to their kids even if they can’t afford day school/what have you.
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The Jewish “Dearth” is turning into an old story.
What is missing are solutions that will facilitate Jewish Continuity.
Such solutions should be:
a. simple to implement
b. inexpensive
c. widely acceptable.
There should also be a website where readers can describe their own theories.
Der Alte says that “Jewish Dearth is turning into an old story” and suggests three characteristics that solutions for Jewish Continuity should have. It seems to me, however, that the dearth for the Diaspora is in such danger of overflowing into a dearth for the Jews not in the Diaspora, so that these simple, inexpensive and widely acceptable solutions have very little time to be discovered and implemented.
As Ora has rightly perceived, my doomsday tone continues to be in evidence, though it is in line with similar others, whilst, as she says, “we’re still here!”
A continuing Jewish history is not a safe prediction for Jewish Continuity into the future, and I would expect the Israeli government to be alarmed at the prospect of Congress over-ruling the President and having US troops leave the Middle East entirely by, say, April 2008.
The Middle East would then be Israel surrounded by Islamic nation after nation. Historically, that has happened before but this time, there are ballistic missiles with nuclear bombs attached. This is what is historically different!
I predict that when the US troops leave the Middle East next year, there will be a multiplying exodus of Jews with dual passports back to the Diaspora.
What’s the point of going on about this? Perhaps not much point, I grant! Except for the little children in Israel! Please, please bring them out and don’t risk their little lives! For, after all, they possess within themselves solutions to Jewish Continuity, which are “simple to implement, inexpensive, and widely acceptable”.
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