AJC Briefing - French Presidential Elections

With the first round of the French presidential elections approaching on Sunday, we in France are watching, for the first time, the emergence of a new generation of political leaders in their 50’s, two of whom are running for the first time in a presidential race.

This is the most keenly contested presidential election in France for a generation. It is also, arguably, the most crucial, with implications not just for France, but also for the future of Europe, transatlantic relations and the international community.

The candidates, Nicolas Sarkozy, Ségolène Royal, François Bayrou, and Jean-Marie Le Pen, represent the full spectrum of political ideals.

The closer the French presidential campaign comes to its conclusion, the more unstable, muddled and unpredictable it seems to get.

Sarkozy, the conservative candidate, has been the front-runner for months. However, Royal, the Socialist candidate, Bayrou and Le Pen are very close in the polls behind him. With the race so tight, a really surprising shift has occurred. The candidates now seem to be looking for a new alliance with those who are “center-right” politically.

French National Identity
Meanwhile, stark questions have arisen. First and foremost concerns French national identity.

For decades questions about French national identity have been avoided. In fact, since the Second World War, questions about nationalism and patriotism have been banished, because they are considered a dangerous theme of the extreme right.

Yet, within the last several months, such themes have been embraced by the four main candidates.

Bayrou was the first to put this issue at the forefront. He launched his campaign from his home town, a village in the French countryside. He reminded voters how strongly he is attached to French values and French history, and stressed that he is the heir to a great French tradition.

Sarkozy upped the ante by announcing on television that if elected he would create a ministry of immigration and national identity. This ministry would require newcomers to embrace the time-honored secular values of the French republic. And, in each of his speeches, he has reminded voters of the importance of French values.

Royal, by comparison, wants every French citizen to memorize the national anthem and display a French flag at home.

And far-right candidate Le Pen accuses others of stealing his long-running campaign of “France for the French.” Additionally, Le Pen has questioned Sarkozy’s French pedigree, noting that because of a Hungarian father, and only one French grandparent, he is not “French enough” to be president.

Such a debate, long considered taboo, is surely the result of troubling events from the last five years. The rioting of young, disenfranchised youth in the outer cities of Paris; questions regarding the veil worn by Muslim women in France; the infamous Mohammed cartoon incident; and the image of some French soccer players refusing to sing the national anthem, have taken their toll. In a country where 10 percent of the population is Muslim or of Muslim origin, with a growing black population, all candidates feel they have to reassure the voters that they will protect core French values.

French Foreign Policy
There is also the very real possibility that French diplomacy may turn on its head as a result of this election.

Sarkozy, at the outset, represents an alternative to traditional pro-Arab French diplomacy. During the last three years, he has expressed strong support for the State of Israel, has toed a strong line on Iran, and is seen as a staunch supporter of the U.S. He was the only one of the candidates during the summer war who stated that the Lebanese people were victims of Hezbollah’s violent actions and that Israel had the duty to protect its citizens. In his recent press conference on foreign affairs, he mentioned the important speeches he has given on this matter, one to AJC in Washington, and the other at the Herzliya conference.

Royal and Bayrou have expressed, with some nuance, Chirac’s line on such affairs.

Royal has been to the Middle East only once. During her trip last December she visited Israel and Lebanon. At the time, her lack of reaction to a Hezbollah member of the Lebanese parliament who compared Israel to a Nazi state caused an uproar. Her campaign said later that the translation was not clear to her at the time. Royal has expressed a variety of views on Middle East issues ― some arousing concern in the Jewish community, and others gaining favor. She supports dialogue with Hamas, and frequently and vehemently distances herself from U.S. policy in the region. She also endorses further sanctions against Iran.

Bayrou, on the other hand, has more thorough knowledge about the Middle East. He has visited Israel many times and has expressed “empathy” toward the Israeli people. However, he strongly condemned Israel during the summer and is also in favor of a stronger Europe which can challenge the U.S.

One final note: It is highly likely that no one will emerge as the definitive winner in Sunday’s election. If so, the run-off between the top two candidates will take place on May 6.

Valerie Hoffenberg is AJC’s Paris representative.